笑看风云

世界杯刚踢完，阿根廷突然成了公敌般的存在。    "[O]usting Russia from the WTO would have a number of negative consequences, for Russia, of course, but also for other WTO countries, and even more so for all those countries that to date have been benefiting from the Russian WTO membership, particularly as regards the oil market and a number of industrial or consumer goods," says Sergio Rossi, professor of macroeconomics and monetary economics at the University of Fribourg, Switzerland.,Since its accession to the WTO, Russia has helped integrate Eastern and Asian countries into global trade and contributed to economic growth as well as firms’ profits, notably in those Western countries that imported a lot of Russian oil, iron, and steel, according to Rossi.,"The Russian participation in the WTO enlarged the spectrum of the latter so that it now covers all major economies around the world," the academic emphasizes. "On geopolitical grounds, it also helped counterbalance the US power, contributing to reducing the asymmetries and the monetary dominance of the US dollar at the global level. For the EU, Russia’s participation in the WTO gave rise to two major benefits. On the one hand, the EU member countries have been in a position to increase their exports to Russia, hence also the EU firms’ profits. On the other hand, these countries’ economies benefited from a huge reduction of their importing costs, as regards different trade barriers (tariffs and patents in particular).",The professor notes that Russia's impact on trade and investment within the framework of the WTO has been positive, given that it facilitated the expansion of foreign trade across the global economy, thereby creating jobs and investment opportunities for a number of Western countries.,Similarly, Russia's WTO membership has played a crucial role for the Global South as Moscow has often thrown its weight behind developing countries, highlights Dr. Anuradha Chenoy, professor of the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University.,"Russia has been a responsible member of the WTO," Chenoy stresses. "On many issues Russia sided with the countries of the Global South, because of rules like ‘Trade Related Intellectual Property Rights’ and patents were not in favor of developing countries. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, India and South Africa proposed an exceptional and temporary waiver on COVID vaccines, which were under patent by Western pharmaceuticals. Many countries of the South backed India and South Africa’s demand. So did Russia. But the Western block did not allow the patent regime to be diluted and big corporate profits continued. Many people in the South could not get the vaccine as a consequence.",RussiaMoscow Calls for Joint Work on Resolving Trade Issues Within WTO to Solve Food Crisis21 May, 18:42 GMT,Russia's Ouster From WTO is Highly Unlikely,The Russian Federation has been a member of WTO since 22 August 2012. Prior to that, it had worked hard for 19 years to meet the organization's requirements. After the beginning of the special operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine, Russia was stripped of its "most favored nation" status, with some Western nations calling for the removal of the country from the international entity. However, as Reuters explained back in March, "expelling Russia, which joined the WTO in 2012 after 19 years of negotiations, would be extremely difficult as there is no specific expulsion process.","Ousting Russia from the WTO is not possible under the current WTO Agreement, as it does not encompass such a possibility," says Rossi.,He points out that Russia could be expelled only if two-thirds of the 164 WTO member countries backed such a decision which is highly unlikely. Neither China nor many other countries, including BRICS members, will ever agree to expel Russia "in light of economic advantages these countries benefit from having Russia within the WTO," according to the academic.,For his part, Chenoy underscores that Russia's hypothetical expulsion could create a disturbing precedent which "would be harmful for global trade and the rules-based order and international law.",EconomyUS Attempts 'to Strangle and Cripple' Russian Economy With Sanctions Failed, Russian Ambassador Says19 August, 10:49 GMT,Meanwhile, Russian lawmakers have also weighed the pros and cons of Russia's WTO membership. In April, State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin instructed relevant chamber committees to study the advisability of Russia's presence in the organization. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation and Liberal Democratic Party of Russia advocated for the nation's withdrawal from the WTO, arguing that Russia's accession to the WTO has made the nation's enterprises less competitive than their Western peers and failed to shield the country from Western sanctions.,For his part, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov argued on May 5 that Russia's exit from the WTO would, in particular, deprive the country of the opportunity to develop new rules for global trade. In addition to that, the WTO still remains an important tool to support Russian exports, the minister wrote in a letter, obtained by Russian media outlet RBC.,Controversies pertaining to the WTO were also discussed by BRICS members during the group's 14th summit in June. The leaders of BRICS states agreed to pursue "the necessary WTO reform" to build an open world economy and called on all WTO members to avoid unilateral and protectionist measures that run counter to the spirit and rules of the WTO.,"This WTO reform is welcome," says Rossi. "This reform should include also an agreement to dispose of the actual international monetary disorder, which is the result of the US dollar dominance that allows the United States to record enormous ‘trade deficits without tears,’ as the French economist Jacques Rueff noticed in the 1950s – that is, shortly after the 1944 Bretton Woods agreements, which put the US dollar at the center of the current international monetary regime. Time has come to get rid of this monetary disorder, which is a factor of financial instability and crises as well as of geopolitical turmoil across the global economy.",RussiaGlobal Power Shifting Away From West, While BRICS Expanding & Increasing Legitimacy14 July, 16:45 GMT,How West Has Shot Itself in the Foot,Meanwhile, the decision of the US, the European Union, Japan, and Canada to strip Russia of its "most favored nation" trade status will have a long-term negative impact on the global economy, according to Rossi.,"The global economy will suffer from this decision, because there will be an increase in the costs of foreign trade for all countries involved," the academic forecasts. "For instance, importing Russian oil and iron in the EU will cost more, as the importing firms will have to pay higher tariffs, which they will transfer to the so-called ‘global value chain’ through a higher mark-up of their own production costs.",As a result, one might expect "a mushroom growth of consumer prices, which – as we can observe now – implies a number of negative consequences for all stakeholders, particularly for the poor and the middle class, but also for small as well as medium-sized firms in Western countries," Rossi notes.,Europe is struggling to tame galloping inflation, which has been further accelerated by the anti-Russia energy embargo. The annual inflation rate in the EU climbed to a record high of 9.8% in July, according to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Likewise, inflation among the Eurozone countries hit a new high of 8.9%. The lowest annual rates were registered in France, Malta (both 6.8%) and Finland (8.0%), while the highest annual rates were recorded in Estonia (23.2%), Latvia (21.3%), and Lithuania (20.9%).,For its part, Russia won't be affected as dramatically as the West, as it is increasingly turning to the East and South, which can be bigger beneficiaries of trade with Russia, who is a prominent supplier of hydrocarbons, commodities, wheat, etc., according to Chenoy. Similarly, Russia's development within the BRICS framework is promising to be beneficial for the country and its partners.,"Countries of the BRICS together have a bigger GDP combined now than the G7 countries," Chenoy notes. "Trade in national currencies, new transport corridors can help the BRICS grow even further."。是场上动作太大球风偏粗野吗？部分正确，毕竟把足球场或篮球场变成武林大会的行为容易被群嘲，别的不说总决赛期间看看马刺的风评就知道了；是裁判若有若无的判罚对蓝白有利吗？部分正确，西决期间看看雷霆的风评就知道了；是部分阿根廷人素质不高爱搞种族歧视吗？同样部分正确，部分纯血阿根廷人很一视同仁的，不仅有东大网友投诉遭到阿根廷人的种族歧视，埃及与佛得角球迷同样投诉遭到阿根廷人种族歧视。我就不说恩佐在2024年美洲杯夺冠后高唱针对法国黑人球员的种族歧视歌曲了。题外话，阿根廷人的种族歧视除一视同仁外还不分贵贱，哪怕全球顶流甲亢哥生活如意钞票装满兜照样被阿根廷人嘲讽为猴子，让他“滚回动物园去哭”。不过甭管球风粗野，哨子偏倚还是球迷素质，以上都算不上大问题。论球风粗野南美球队除巴西外大多一个吊样，苏亚雷斯当初还咬人呢；论球迷素质差谁比得上英格兰，足球流氓这四个字仿佛就是为他们量身定制的。真正让阿根廷沦为众矢之的的原因在于：阿根廷与以色列是一伙的。众所周知米圣是右棍，而且是那种非常虔诚的原教旨右棍，难怪他与内塔尼亚胡一拍即合打的火热。

二 | 自2023年起他便多次出访以色列并无脑支持以色列的一切举措，每次去特拉维夫都和回家一样。米圣如舔狗，以色列投桃报李。世界杯进行期间内塔尼亚胡多次声明“我支持阿根廷”，常看键政的乡亲都知道这厮在国外网络平台属于恶名拉满的那种，反正丫再这么搞下去落榜美术生都快要被洗白了。

三 | 可能有人疑惑难道老外也关心政治？老外可太关心政治了，不仅关心政治还爱举大旗。东大好歹讲实用主义，哪怕再看不惯以色列的所作所为仍与以色列保持商贸往来外交关系。老外可就不同了，大旗一举真会把自己带入其中。别的不说环保少女格雷塔带队冲滩加沙都不是一回两回了，每回都没吃到好果汁。喏，在开拓者打球的阿夫迪亚就曾因自己的身份饱受抨击，哪怕他啥都没说啥都没做就想好好打球，照样被网民群起而攻之，搞得阿夫迪亚不胜其烦在采访中公开表示，他受够了因自己是以色列人而招致仇恨，要求得到尊重。阿夫迪亚仅仅因为国籍问题便被认为有“原罪”，反观米圣都公开站队了。

四 | 为此网上有人伪造内塔尼亚胡前往现场为阿根廷加油助威的AI图，搞得法新社不得不出来辟谣。结果刚把火灭下去，世界杯决赛前阿根廷驻以色列大使又出来整尬活，召唤内塔尼亚胡力挺阿根廷……真就是证据确凿百口莫辩了。阿根廷立马被打成以色列的“走狗”，连带阿根廷国家队一起倒霉。

五 | 然后便是经典翻老账环节，梅西难逃被牵连其中。原本梅西在其生涯里始终将自己塑造成不涉及政治的公众形象，但批评人士指出他与以色列之间存在商业联系。2020年，梅西成为以色列科技公司OrCam的品牌大使，该公司致力于为视障人士开发辅助设备；此前他还担任总部位于特拉维夫的科技公司Sirin Labs的全球品牌大使。按理说梅西接商业代言无可厚非，可谁让以色列如今名声臭大街了呢？此外那张梅西层参观哭墙的照片亦被翻找出来，而这甚至是发生在2013年，老到不能再老的事件了。原先以色列名声在年轻人群体里还没那么烂，小朋友出生晚不太清楚那些历史恩怨。可历经加沙战争与中东大乱斗后，其恶名呈指数级上涨。短视频时代，以色列军队想干点坏事瞒不住的啦，眨眼功夫便传遍网络。

六 | 于是乎，以色列俨然世界公敌般的存在。莫说是广大穆斯林群体，欧洲人、亚洲人乃至美国人都不喜欢以色列，负面到民调都没法做的那种。就连阿根廷国内都这样，有55%的人对以色列持负面看法，持正面看法的仅有21%。

七 | 一份份恶感，共同构建起清晰且粗暴的逻辑链：以色列就不是个东西——阿根廷居然跟着以色列混——那么阿根廷也不是东西巧的是，阿根廷决赛里的对手西班牙刚好是左翼代表，由于其首相佩德罗-桑切斯的外交政策，西班牙已经成为大量阿拉伯，以及同情巴勒斯坦人士的关注焦点。难怪决赛刚踢完，巴勒斯坦官方账号便直接贴脸开大了。加之亚马尔早早的表明立场支持巴勒斯坦（巴萨夺冠游行公开给巴勒斯坦摇旗），层层Buff堆叠刹那间令西班牙成为正义的代表，加之阿根廷决赛踢得既臭又有球员动手动脚……事实上阿根廷与西班牙开打前就有媒体感慨，决赛的意义已超出体育成为政治的一部分，更像是以色列代理人与巴勒斯坦代理人之间的战争。As Argentina and Spain prepare to meet in Sunday’s World Cup final, the contest for soccer’s biggest prize is also being cast by some fans as a proxy battle over Israel and Palestine.That framing has less to do with the teams themselves than with the politics surrounding them.问题随之而来，究竟是支持以色列的人多，还是同情巴勒斯坦的人多呢？认清这点，就该意识到为啥阿根廷沦为众矢之的了。

八 | 都说体育要让政治走开。现在看来，更像是一句笑话。